Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions—the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework

Brennan, A., Meier, P. , Purshouse, R., Rafia, R., Meng, Y. and Hill-Macmanus, D. (2016) Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions—the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework. Annals of Operations Research, 236, pp. 149-176. (doi: 10.1007/s10479-013-1451-z) (PMID:26770007) (PMCID:PMC4710054)

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This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Meier, Professor Petra
Authors: Brennan, A., Meier, P., Purshouse, R., Rafia, R., Meng, Y., and Hill-Macmanus, D.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
Journal Name:Annals of Operations Research
ISSN (Online):1572-9338
Published Online:08 October 2013
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2013 The Authors
First Published:First published in Annals of Operations Research 236: 149-176
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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