Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow

Li, J., Shi, X. , Chen, Y. D. and Zhang, L. (2020) Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(12), pp. 2043-2056. (doi: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1785625)

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The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period. We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% decreases in wet season and 93% increases in dry season) and 101% reductions in flood peaks the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:This work was substantially supported by research grants from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [No. HKBU12303517, No. HKBU12302518 and No. CUHK441313], the Faculty Research Grant from Hong Kong Baptist University [No. FRG2/15-16/043], Direct Grant of the Chinese University of Hong Kong [CUHK Direct Grant 4052085].
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Shi, Dr John Xiaogang
Authors: Li, J., Shi, X., Chen, Y. D., and Zhang, L.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
Journal Name:Hydrological Sciences Journal
Publisher:Taylor & Francis
ISSN (Online):2150-3435
Published Online:22 June 2020
First Published:First published in Hydrological Sciences Journal 65(12):2043-2056
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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