Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data

Mesa-Eguiagaray, I., Wild, S. H., Rosenberg, P. S., Bird, S. M., Brewster, D. H., Hall, P. S., Cameron, D. A., Morrison, D. and Figueroa, J. D. (2020) Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data. British Journal of Cancer, 123(5), pp. 852-859. (doi: 10.1038/s41416-020-0938-z) (PMID:32555534) (PMCID:PMC7463252)

Abstract

Background: We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology. Methods: Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status. Results: Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50–69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2–2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: −3.9 to −1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941–1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912–1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960–1986 had lower IRR for ER− tumours. Conclusions: Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This project was funded by Wellcome Trust grant 207800/Z/17/Z.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Morrison, Dr David
• Authors: Mesa-Eguiagaray, I., Wild, S. H., Rosenberg, P. S., Bird, S. M., Brewster, D. H., Hall, P. S., Cameron, D. A., Morrison, D., and Figueroa, J. D.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Public Health
• Journal Name: British Journal of Cancer
• Publisher: Nature Research
• ISSN: 0007-0920
• ISSN (Online): 1532-1827
• Published Online: 19 June 2020
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2020 The Authors
• First Published: First published in British Journal of Cancer 123(5): 852-859
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License