A critical review of wind power forecasting methods - past, present and future

Hanifi, S., Liu, X. , Lin, Z. and Lotfian, S. (2020) A critical review of wind power forecasting methods - past, present and future. Energies, 13(15), 3764. (doi: 10.3390/en13153764)

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The largest obstacle that suppresses the increase of wind power penetration within the power grid is uncertainties and fluctuations in wind speeds. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting is a challenging task, which can significantly impact the effective operation of power systems. Wind power forecasting is also vital for planning unit commitment, maintenance scheduling and profit maximisation of power traders. The current development of cost-effective operation and maintenance methods for modern wind turbines benefits from the advancement of effective and accurate wind power forecasting approaches. This paper systematically reviewed the state-of-the-art approaches of wind power forecasting with regard to physical, statistical (time series and artificial neural networks) and hybrid methods, including factors that affect accuracy and computational time in the predictive modelling efforts. Besides, this study provided a guideline for wind power forecasting process screening, allowing the wind turbine/farm operators to identify the most appropriate predictive methods based on time horizons, input features, computational time, error measurements, etc. More specifically, further recommendations for the research community of wind power forecasting were proposed based on reviewed literature.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:hanifi, shahram and Liu, Dr Xiaolei
Creator Roles:
Hanifi, S.Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing, Data curation
Liu, X.Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Writing – review and editing, Supervision
Authors: Hanifi, S., Liu, X., Lin, Z., and Lotfian, S.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Systems Power and Energy
Journal Name:Energies
ISSN (Online):1996-1073
Published Online:22 July 2020
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 The Authors
First Published:First published in Energies 13(15): 3764
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
305200DTP 2018-19 University of GlasgowMary Beth KneafseyEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)EP/R513222/1MVLS - Graduate School