Comparison of serum and urinary biomarker panels with albumin/creatinine ratio in the prediction of renal function decline in type 1 diabetes

Colombo, M. et al. (2020) Comparison of serum and urinary biomarker panels with albumin/creatinine ratio in the prediction of renal function decline in type 1 diabetes. Diabetologia, 63, pp. 788-798. (doi: 10.1007/s00125-019-05081-8) (PMID:31915892)

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Aims/hypothesis: We examined whether candidate biomarkers in serum or urine can improve the prediction of renal disease progression in type 1 diabetes beyond prior eGFR, comparing their performance with urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR). Methods: From the population-representative Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource (SDRNT1BIO) we sampled 50% and 25% of those with starting eGFR below and above 75 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2, respectively (N = 1629), and with median 5.1 years of follow-up. Multiplexed ELISAs and single molecule array technology were used to measure nine serum biomarkers and 13 urine biomarkers based on our and others’ prior work using large discovery and candidate studies. Associations with final eGFR and with progression to <30 ml min−1 [1.73] m−2, both adjusted for baseline eGFR, were tested using linear and logistic regression models. Parsimonious biomarker panels were identified using a penalised Bayesian approach, and their performance was evaluated through tenfold cross-validation and compared with using urinary ACR and other clinical record data. Results: Seven serum and seven urine biomarkers were strongly associated with either final eGFR or progression to <30 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2, adjusting for baseline eGFR and other covariates (all at p<2.3 × 10−3). Of these, associations of four serum biomarkers were independent of ACR for both outcomes. The strongest associations with both final eGFR and progression to <30 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2 were for serum TNF receptor 1, kidney injury molecule 1, CD27 antigen, α-1-microglobulin and syndecan-1. These serum associations were also significant in normoalbuminuric participants for both outcomes. On top of baseline covariates, the r2 for prediction of final eGFR increased from 0.702 to 0.743 for serum biomarkers, and from 0.702 to 0.721 for ACR alone. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for progression to <30 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2 increased from 0.876 to 0.953 for serum biomarkers, and to 0.911 for ACR alone. Other urinary biomarkers did not outperform ACR. Conclusions/interpretation: A parsimonious panel of serum biomarkers easily measurable along with serum creatinine may outperform ACR for predicting renal disease progression in type 1 diabetes, potentially obviating the need for urine testing.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:This study was supported by funding from the JDRF (Ref. 3-SRA-2016- 332-M-R), the Chief Scientist Office (Ref. ETM/47) and Diabetes UK (Ref. 10/0004010), and by in-kind contribution from the Scottish Diabetes Research Network.
Keywords:Clinical science, epidemiology, metabolomics, nephropathy, proteomics.
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Petrie, Professor John
Authors: Colombo, M., McGurnaghan, S. J., Blackbourn, L. A. K., Dalton, R. N., Dunger, D., Bell, S., Petrie, J. R., Green, F., MacRury, S., McKnight, J. A., Chalmers, J., Collier, A., McKeigue, P. M., and Colhoun, H. M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health
Journal Name:Diabetologia
ISSN (Online):1432-0428
Published Online:08 January 2020
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2019 The Authors
First Published:First published in Diabetologia 63:788-798
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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