Optimising spatial and seasonal deployment of vaccination campaigns to eliminate wildlife rabies

Baker, L., Matthiopoulos, J. , Müller, T., Freuling, C. and Hampson, K. (2019) Optimising spatial and seasonal deployment of vaccination campaigns to eliminate wildlife rabies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 374(1776), 20180280. (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0280) (PMID:31104608) (PMCID:PMC6558560)

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Understanding how the spatial deployment of interventions affects elimination time horizons and potential for disease re-emergence has broad application to control programmes targeting human, animal and plant pathogens. We previously developed an epidemiological model that captures the main features of rabies spread and the impacts of vaccination based on detailed records of fox rabies in eastern Germany during the implementation of an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programme. Here, we use simulations from this fitted model to determine the best vaccination strategy, in terms of spatial placement and timing of ORV efforts, for three epidemiological scenarios representative of current situations in Europe. We found that consecutive and comprehensive twice-yearly vaccinations across all regions rapidly controlled and eliminated rabies and that the autumn campaigns had the greater impact on increasing the probability of elimination. This appears to result from the need to maintain sufficient herd immunity in the face of large birth pulses, as autumn vaccinations reach susceptible juveniles and therefore a larger proportion of the population than spring vaccinations. Incomplete vaccination compromised time to elimination requiring the same or more vaccination effort to meet similar timelines. Our results have important practical implications that could inform policies for rabies containment and elimination in Europe and elsewhere.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:L.B. was funded by an MRC doctoral training programme grant to the University of Glasgow (MR/J50032X/1). K.H. was supported by the Wellcome Trust (095787/Z/11/Z and 207569/Z/ 17/Z).
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hampson, Professor Katie and Matthiopoulos, Professor Jason and Baker, Miss Laurie
Authors: Baker, L., Matthiopoulos, J., Müller, T., Freuling, C., and Hampson, K.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher:The Royal Society
ISSN (Online):1471-2970
Published Online:20 May 2019

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
580941MRC Doctoral Training Grant 2011-2015Mary Beth KneafseyMedical Research Council (MRC)MR/J50032X/1VPO VICE PRINCIPAL RESEARCH & ENTERPRISE
3016200The Science of Rabies EliminationKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)207569/Z/17/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
569041Hierarchical epidemiology: the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in complex landscapesKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)095787/Z/11/ZRI BIODIVERSITY ANIMAL HEALTH & COMPMED