Shifting paradigms: how even Hipparchus was smarter than Samuelson

Cockshott, W. P. (2019) Shifting paradigms: how even Hipparchus was smarter than Samuelson. Critique: Studies in Contemporary Fiction, 47(2), pp. 235-256. (doi: 10.1080/03017605.2019.1601881)

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Abstract

Since Kuhn introduced the notion of a paradigm shift, the classic example has been the shift from the epicyclic Ptolemaic astronomy to the Kepler/Newton astronomy. This paper goes into some detail of just how epicycle theory worked. It shows that the method was in fact closely related to what we now know as Fourier analysis, and as such could be used to fit known observations to an arbitrary degree of accuracy. The real gain of the Newtonian theory was its simplicity, being able to predict the same results with a much simpler conceptual apparatus. The paper then illustrates how epicycle theory can be used to fit economic data such as world oil prices, and contrast the resulting epicyclic price theory with that of Samuelson. It shows that far from being simpler, Samuelson’s theory is even more baroque and complex than the Ptolemaic one when applied to concrete data. It goes on question whether economists, rather than attempting to base a theory on maths that ultimately derived from celestial mechanics, would not be better to borrow from branches of science that explicitly make provision for randomness.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Cockshott, Dr William
Authors: Cockshott, W. P.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Computing Science
Journal Name:Critique: Studies in Contemporary Fiction
Publisher:Taylor and Francis
ISSN:0011-1619
ISSN (Online):1939-9138
Published Online:29 May 2019

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