HIV epidemic trend and antiretroviral treatment need in Karonga District, Malawi

White, R.G. et al. (2007) HIV epidemic trend and antiretroviral treatment need in Karonga District, Malawi. Epidemiology and Infection, 135(6), pp. 922-932. (doi: 10.1017/s0950268806007680) (PMID:17217548)

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We describe the development of the HIV epidemic in Karonga District, Malawi over 22 years using data from population surveys and community samples. These data are used to estimate the trend in HIV prevalence, incidence and need for antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a simple mathematical model. HIV prevalence rose quickly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, stabilizing at around 12% in the mid-1990s. Estimated annual HIV incidence rose quickly, peaking in the early 1990s at 2·2% among males and 3·1% among females, and then levelled off at 1·3% among males and 1·1% among females by the late 1990s. Assuming a 2-year eligibility period, both our model and the UNAIDS models predicted 2·1% of adults were in need of ART in 2005. This prediction was sensitive to the assumed eligibility period, ranging from 1·6% to 2·6% if the eligibility period was instead assumed to be 1·5 or 2·5 years, respectively.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:R.G.W. thanks the UK Medical Research Council for funding. Data used in this study come from the Karonga Prevention study, initially funded by the British Leprosy Relief Association (LEPRA), and since 1996 by The Wellcome Trust. J.R.G. is partially funded by the UK Department of Health (Public Health Career Scientist award).
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Crampin, Professor Mia
Authors: White, R.G., Vynnycky, E., Glynn, J.R., Crampin, A.C., Jahn, A., Mwaungulu, F., Mwanyongo, O., Jabu, H., Phiri, H., McGrath, N., Zaba, B., and Fine, P.E.M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Public Health
Journal Name:Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN (Online):1469-4409

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