References
1. Thackeray, S. J. et al. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and
trophic levels. Nature 535, 241–245 (2016).
2. Cushing, D. Plankton production and year-class strength in fish populations:
an update of the match/mismatch hypothesis. Adv. Mar. Biol. 26,
249–293 (1990).
3. Durant, J. M., Hjermann, D. Ø., Ottersen, G. & Stenseth, N. C. Climate and
the match or mismatch between predator requirements and resource
availability. Clim. Res. 33, 271–283 (2007).
4. Edwards, M. & Richardson, A. J. Impact of climate change on marine pelagic
phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature 430, 881–884 (2004).
5. Donnelly, A., Caffarra, A. & O’Neill, B. F. A review of climate-driven
mismatches between interdependent phenophases in terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems. Int. J. Biometeorol. 55, 805–817 (2011).
6. Phillimore, A. B., Stålhandske, S., Smithers, R. J. & Bernard, R. Dissecting the
contributions of plasticity and local adaptation to the phenology of a butterfly
and its host plants. Am. Nat. 180, 655–670 (2012).
7. Phillimore, A. B., Leech, D. I., Pearce-Higgins, J. W. & Hadfield, J. D.
Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature-mediated shifts in
optimum lay date. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3259–3272 (2016).
8. Bourne, E. C. et al. Between migration load and evolutionary rescue:
dispersal, adaptation and the response of spatially structured populations to
environmental change. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 281, 20132795 (2014).
9. Thackeray, S. J. et al. Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change
for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments. Glob. Change Biol. 16,
3304–3313 (2010).
10. Both, C., Asch, M., Bijlsma, R. G., van den Burg, A. B. & Visser, M. E.
Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels:
constraints or adaptations? J. Anim. Ecol. 78, 73–83 (2009).
11. Vatka, E., Orell, M. & Rytkönen, S. Warming climate advances breeding and
improves synchrony of food demand and food availability in a boreal
passerine. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 3002–3009 (2011).
12. Visser, M. E., van Noordwijk, A. J., Tinbergen, J. M. & Lessells, C. M.
Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (Parus major).
Proc. R. Soc. B 265, 1867–1870 (1998).
13. Smith, K. W. et al. Large-scale variation in the temporal patterns of the frass
fall of defoliating caterpillars in oak woodlands in Britain: implications for
nesting woodland birds. Bird Study 58, 506–511 (2011).
14. Tansey, C. J., Hadfield, J. D. & Phillimore, A. B. Estimating the ability of
plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring
phenological optimum. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 3321–3334 (2017).
15. Both, C., Van Asch, M., Bijlsma, R. G., van den Burg, A. B. & Visser, M. E.
Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels:
constraints or adaptations? J. Anim. Ecol. 78, 73–83 (2009).
16. Buse, A., Dury, S., Woodburn, R., Perrins, C. & Good, J. Effects of elevated
temperature on multi‐species interactions: the case of Pedunculate Oak,
Winter Moth and Tits. Funct. Ecol. 13, 74–82 (1999).
17. Lundberg, A. & Alatalo, R. V. The Pied Flycatcher (T & A D Poyser,
London, 1992).
18. Perrins, C. M. Tits and their caterpillar food supply. Ibis 133, 49–54 (1991).
19. Charmantier, A. et al. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate
change in a wild bird population. Science 320, 800–803 (2008).
20. Cresswell, W. & McCleery, R. How great tits maintain synchronization of
their hatch date with food supply in response to long-term variability in
temperature. J. Anim. Ecol. 72, 356–366 (2003).
21. Eeva, T. & Lehikoinen, E. Polluted environment and cold weather induce
laying gaps in great tit and pied flycatcher. Oecologia 162, 533–539 (2010).
22. Sanz, J. J. Effect of food availability on incubation period in the pied
flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca). Auk 113, 249–253 (1996).
23. Tomás, G. Hatching date vs laying date: what should we look at to study
avian optimal timing of reproduction? J. Avian Biol. 46, 107–112 (2015).
24. Morrison, C. A., Robinson, R. A., Butler, S. J., Clark, J. A. & Gill, J. A.
Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic
migratory bird population. Proc. R. Soc. B 283, 20161387 (2016).
25. Both, C., G Bijlsma, R. & E Visser, M. Climatic effects on timing of spring
migration and breeding in a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher
Ficedula hypoleuca. J. Avian Biol. 36, 368–373 (2005).
26. Ouwehand, J. et al. Light-level geolocators reveal migratory connectivity in
European populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. J. Avian Biol. 47,
69–83 (2016).
27. Ouwehand, J. & Both, C. African departure rather than migration speed
determines variation in spring arrival in pied flycatchers. J. Anim. Ecol. 86,
88–97 (2017).
28. Both, C. & te Marvelde, L. Climate change and timing of avian breeding and
migration throughout Europe. Clim. Res. 35, 93–105 (2007).
29. Ockendon, N., Leech, D. & Pearce-Higgins, J. W. Climatic effects on breeding
grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds
than carry-over effects from wintering grounds. Biol. Lett. 9, 20130669 (2013).
30. Cholewa, M. & Wesolowski, T. Nestling food of European hole-nesting
passerines: do we know enough to test the adaptive hypotheses on breeding
seasons? Acta Ornithol. 46, 105–116 (2011).
31. Hinks, A. E. et al. Scale-dependent phenological synchrony
between songbirds and their caterpillar food source. Am. Nat. 186,
84–97 (2015).
32. Burger, C. et al. Climate change, breeding date and nestling diet: how
temperature differentially affects seasonal changes in pied flycatcher diet
depending on habitat variation. J. Anim. Ecol. 81, 926–936 (2012).
33. Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C. M. & Visser, M. E. Climate change and
population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 44,
81–83 (2006).
34. McLean, N., Lawson, C., Leech, D. I. & van de Pol, M. Predicting when
climate-driven phenotypic changes affects population dynamics. Ecol. Lett. 19,
595–608 (2016).
35. Morrison, C. A., Robinson, R. A., Clark, J. A. & Gill, J. A. Spatial and
temporal variation in population trends in a long-distance migratory bird.
Divers. Distrib. 16, 620–627 (2010).
36. Morrison, C. A., Robinson, R. A., Clark, J. A., Risely, K. & Gill, J. A.
Recent population declines in Afro-Palaearctic migratory birds:
the influence of breeding and non-breeding seasons. Divers. Distrib. 19,
1051–1058 (2013).
37. Crick, H. Q., Baillie, S. R. & Leech, D. I. The UK Nest Record Scheme: its
value for science and conservation. Bird. Study 50, 254–270 (2003).
38. R Development Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical
Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2015).
39. Hadfield, J. D. MCMC methods for multi-response generalized linear mixed
models: the MCMCglmm R package. J. Stat. Softw. 33, 1–22 (2010).
40. Phillimore, A. B., Hadfield, J. D., Jones, O. R. & Smithers, R. J. Differences in
spawning date between populations of common frog reveal local adaptation.
Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 8292–8297 (2010).
41. Hadfield, J. D., Heap, E. A., Bayer, F., Mittell, E. A. & Crouch, N. M. A.
Intraclutch differences in egg characteristics mitigate the consequences of
age-related hierarchies in a wild passerine. Evolution 67, 2688–2700 (2013).
42. Brooks, S. P. & Gelman, A. General methods for monitoring convergence of
iterative simulations. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 7, 434–455 (1998).
43. Warton, D. I., Wright, I. J., Falster, D. S. & Westoby, M. Bivariate line‐fitting
methods for allometry. Biol. Rev. 81, 259–291 (2006).
44. Evans, K. L., Leech, D. I., Crick, H. Q. P., Greenwood, J. J. D. & Gaston, K. J.
Latitudinal and seasonal patterns in clutch size of some single-brooded
British birds. Bird. Study 56, 75–85 (2009).
45. Naef-Daenzer, B. & Keller, L. F. The foraging performance of great and blue
tits (Parus major and P. caeruleus) in relation to caterpillar development, and
its consequences for nestling growth and fledging weight. J. Anim. Ecol. 68,
708–718 (1999).
46. Royama, T. Factors governing feeding rate, food requirement and brood size
of nestling great tits Parus major. Ibis 108, 313–347 (1966)
References
References