The risk of rabies spread in Japan: a mathematical modeling assessment

Kadowaki, H., Hampson, K. , Tojinbara, K., Yamada, A. and Makita, K. (2018) The risk of rabies spread in Japan: a mathematical modeling assessment. Epidemiology and Infection, 146(10), pp. 1245-1252. (doi: 10.1017/S0950268818001267) (PMID:29781416) (PMCID:PMCID: PMC6533641)

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Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km2 grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hampson, Professor Katie
Authors: Kadowaki, H., Hampson, K., Tojinbara, K., Yamada, A., and Makita, K.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN (Online):1469-4409
Published Online:21 May 2018
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2018 Cambridge University Press
First Published:First published in Epidemiology and Infection 146(10): 1245-1252
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
569041Hierarchical epidemiology: the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in complex landscapesKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)095787/Z/11/ZRI BIODIVERSITY ANIMAL HEALTH & COMPMED