Forecasting government bond spreads with heuristic models: evidence from the Eurozone periphery

Da Silva Fernandes, F., Stasinakis, C. and Zekaite, Z. (2019) Forecasting government bond spreads with heuristic models: evidence from the Eurozone periphery. Annals of Operations Research, 282(1-2), pp. 87-118. (doi: 10.1007/s10479-018-2808-0)

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This study investigates the predictability of European long-term government bond spreads through the application of heuristic and metaheuristic support vector regression (SVR) hybrid structures. Genetic, krill herd and sine–cosine algorithms are applied to the parameterization process of the SVR and locally weighted SVR (LSVR) methods. The inputs of the SVR models are selected from a large pool of linear and non-linear individual predictors. The statistical performance of the main models is evaluated against a random walk, an Autoregressive Moving Average, the best individual prediction model and the traditional SVR and LSVR structures. All models are applied to forecast daily and weekly government bond spreads of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain over the sample period 2000–2017. The results show that the sine–cosine LSVR is outperforming its counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy, while metaheuristic approaches seem to benefit the parameterization process more than the heuristic ones.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:ZEKAITE, ZIVILE and Stasinakis, Professor Charalampos
Authors: Da Silva Fernandes, F., Stasinakis, C., and Zekaite, Z.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Accounting and Finance
Journal Name:Annals of Operations Research
ISSN (Online):1572-9338
Published Online:15 March 2018
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2018 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
First Published:First published in Annals of Operations Research 282(1-2): 87-118
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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