Dynamic stability analysis of pipeline based on reliability using surrogate model

Yang, H. and Wang, A. (2013) Dynamic stability analysis of pipeline based on reliability using surrogate model. Journal of Marine Engineering and Technology, 12(2), pp. 75-84. (doi: 10.1080/20464177.2013.11020279)

Abstract

The surrogate model is applied to a reliability analysis of the stability of untrenched pipelines. Experience has shown that the stability of a pipeline is sensitive to a number of variables associated with soil properties, structural modelling, and hydrodynamic loads. Because uncertainties are unavoidable in these key design parameters, it is vital to evaluate pipeline instability failure using a probabilistic approach. However, a reliability analysis of on-bottom stability in the time domain is often a very computationally expensive process. The stability of a pipeline exposed to time-varying environmental loads is a highly nonlinear phenomenon with pipe-soil-fluid interactions. In this work, surrogate model technology was utilised to realise the reliability analysis which is also quite time consuming. A Fourier model was used to calculate the hydrodynamic forces acting on a pipeline. The surrogate model was constructed using experiment sampling and, in conjunction with a Monte Carlo simulation, was employed to perform the reliability evaluation. Moreover, the influences of various random variables on pipeline instability are discussed through a sensitivity analysis. An accurate assessment of the conservatism in the different variables could lead to fewer conservative stabilisation requirements. The results show that using a surrogate model for reliability analysis not only reduces the computational cost significantly but also produces a highly accurate evaluation of pipeline stability.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Yang, Dr Hezhen
• Authors: Yang, H., and Wang, A.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Infrastructure and Environment
• Journal Name: Journal of Marine Engineering and Technology
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
• ISSN: 2046-4177
• ISSN (Online): 2056-8487