Risk-­based strategies for surveillance of bovine Tuberculosis infection in cattle for low risk areas in England and Scotland

Salvador, L.C.M. , Deason, M., Enright, J. , Bessell, R.R. and Kao, R.R. (2018) Risk-­based strategies for surveillance of bovine Tuberculosis infection in cattle for low risk areas in England and Scotland. Epidemiology and Infection, 146(1), pp. 107-118. (doi: 10.1017/S0950268817001935)

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Disease surveillance can be made more effective by either improving disease detection, providing cost savings, or doing both. Currently, cattle herds in low-risk areas (LRAs) for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in England are tested once every 4 years. In Scotland, the default herd testing frequency is also 4 years, but a risk-based system exempts some herds from testing altogether. To extend this approach to other areas, a bespoke understanding of at-risk herds and how risk-based surveillance can affect bTB detection is required. Here, we use a generalized linear mixed model to inform a Bayesian probabilistic model of freedom from infection and explore risk-based surveillance strategies in LRAs and Scotland. Our analyses show that in both areas the primary herd-level risk factors for bTB infection are the size of the herd and purchasing cattle from high-risk areas of Great Britain and/or Ireland. A risk-based approach can improve the current surveillance system by both increasing detection (9% and 7% fewer latent infections), and reducing testing burden (6% and 26% fewer animal tests) in LRAs and Scotland, respectively. Testing at-risk herds more frequently can also improve the level of detection by identifying more infected cases and reducing the hidden burden of the disease, and reduce surveillance effort by exempting low-risk herds from testing.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Salvador, Dr Liliana and Kao, Professor Rowland and Bessell, Dr Paul and Enright, Dr Jessica and Deason, Dr Michael
Authors: Salvador, L.C.M., Deason, M., Enright, J., Bessell, R.R., and Kao, R.R.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN (Online):1469-4409
Published Online:06 December 2017
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2017 Cambridge University Press
First Published:First published in Epidemiology and Infection 146(1):107-118
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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