What Will the Scottish Sheep Industry Look Like in 2040 and How Resilient Will It Be to Livestock Disease?

Auty, H. , Bessell, P., Boden, L., Bronsvoort, M., Duckett, D., Kyle, C., Liu, J. and Mckendrick, I. (2015) What Will the Scottish Sheep Industry Look Like in 2040 and How Resilient Will It Be to Livestock Disease? Project Report. Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks.

Abstract

In February 2014, EPIC conducted a two day workshop using scenario planning methodology to examine the future of the sheep industry in Scotland with a time horizon of 2040. A wide range of participants were given the role of scenario planners, tasked with engaging in strategic thinking through a series of carefully crafted exercises that resulted in the creation of four scenarios set in 2040. The focal question addressed was ‘What will the Scottish sheep industry look like in 2040 and how resilient will it be to livestock disease?’ EPIC scenario planning workshops have created a new space for dialogue amongst a diverse group of sheep industry participants. These include representatives from the Scottish sheep retail sector, farming, forestry and wildlife sectors, veterinarians, epidemiologists, social scientists and Scottish Government policy makers. This exercise has facilitated social learning enabling stakeholders to build strategic partnerships by sharing experiences, understanding one another’s constraints and exchanging knowledge. Information-rich narratives based on important drivers of change (demand, Government prioritisation and technological innovation) for the Scottish sheep industry have been developed. Consideration of disease risk and transmission in each scenario helped to identify potential future vulnerabilities in disease control, surveillance and contingency planning. Strategies that could be implemented today to address these future vulnerabilities were developed. Key questions for policy makers have been framed which consider what actions might be taken now to mitigate future threats or optimise future opportunities, considering issues such as the role of cooperative approaches for disease control and maximising abattoir- based surveillance. EPIC is using these scenarios to determine how drivers of change will have an impact on industry demographics and the risks of disease introduction and disease spread as well as disease control strategies. Modelling disease incursion will help EPIC scientists understand how the risks of exotic pathogens are altered in different futures. This will improve future tools for disease outbreak prevention and management.

• Item Type: Research Reports or Papers (Project Report)
• Additional Information: The authors are the scenario planning coordinators for EPIC: Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks.
• Status: Published
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Bessell, Dr Paul and Boden, Dr Lisa and Auty, Harriet
• Authors: Auty, H., Bessell, P., Boden, L., Bronsvoort, M., Duckett, D., Kyle, C., Liu, J., and Mckendrick, I.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Publisher: Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks