Jacquot, M. , Nomikou, K. , Palmarini, M. , Mertens, P. and Biek, R. (2017) Bluetongue virus spread in Europe is a consequence of climatic, landscape and vertebrate host factors as revealed by phylogeographic inference. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 284(1864), 20170919. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0919) (PMID:29021180) (PMCID:PMC5647287)
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Abstract
Spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of infectious diseases are commonly driven by environmental and ecological factors. This is particularly true for vector-borne diseases because vector populations can be strongly affected by host distribution as well as by climatic and landscape variables. Here, we aim to identify environmental drivers for bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of a major vector-borne disease of ruminants that has emerged multiple times in Europe in recent decades. In order to determine the importance of climatic, landscape and host-related factors affecting BTV diffusion across Europe, we fitted different phylogeographic models to a dataset of 113 time-stamped and geo-referenced BTV genomes, representing multiple strains and serotypes. Diffusion models using continuous space revealed that terrestrial habitat below 300 m altitude, wind direction and higher livestock densities were associated with faster BTV movement. Results of discrete phylogeographic analysis involving generalized linear models broadly supported these findings, but varied considerably with the level of spatial partitioning. Contrary to common perception, we found no evidence for average temperature having a positive effect on BTV diffusion, though both methodological and biological reasons could be responsible for this result. Our study provides important insights into the drivers of BTV transmission at the landscape scale that could inform predictive models of viral spread and have implications for designing control strategies.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Palmarini, Professor Massimo and Biek, Professor Roman and Mertens, Professor Peter and Nomikou, Dr Kyriaki and Jacquot, Dr Maude |
| Authors: | Jacquot, M., Nomikou, K., Palmarini, M., Mertens, P., and Biek, R. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity > Centre for Virus Research College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
| Journal Name: | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences |
| Publisher: | The Royal Society |
| ISSN: | 0962-8452 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1471-2954 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2017 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences 284(1864):20170919 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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