Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

Benavides, J.A., Caillaud, D., Scurlock, B.M., Maichak, E.J., Edwards, W.H. and Cross, P.C. (2017) Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk. EcoHealth, 14(2), pp. 234-343. (doi: 10.1007/s10393-017-1235-z) (PMID:28508154)

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Abstract

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Benavides, Dr Julio
Authors: Benavides, J.A., Caillaud, D., Scurlock, B.M., Maichak, E.J., Edwards, W.H., and Cross, P.C.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:EcoHealth
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1612-9202
ISSN (Online):1612-9210
Published Online:15 May 2017
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2017 The Authors
First Published:First published in EcoHealth 14(2):234-243
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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