Prediction of early recurrent thromboembolic event and major bleeding in patients with acute stroke and atrial fibrillation by a risk stratification schema: the ALESSA score study

Paciaroni, M. et al. (2017) Prediction of early recurrent thromboembolic event and major bleeding in patients with acute stroke and atrial fibrillation by a risk stratification schema: the ALESSA score study. Stroke, 48(3), pp. 726-732. (doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.015770) (PMID:28183856)

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Abstract

Background and Purposes—This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods—The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08–2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P=0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30–1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632–0.763; P=0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493–0.678; P=0.10) for major bleedings. Results—The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529–0.763; P=0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275–0.540; P=0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events. Conclusions—In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Abdul-Rahim, Dr Azmil and Lees, Professor Kennedy
Authors: Paciaroni, M., Agnelli, G., Caso, V., Tsivgoulis, G., Furie, K. L., Tadi, P., Becattini, C., Falocci, N., Zedde, M., Abdul-Rahim, A. H., Lees, K. R., Alberti, A., Venti, M., Acciarresi, M., D'Amore, C., Mosconi, M. G., Cimini, L. A., Procopio, A., Bovi, P., Carletti, M., Rigatelli, A., Cappellari, M., Putaala, J., Tomppo, L., Tatlisumak, T., Bandini, F., Marcheselli, S., Pezzini, A., Poli, L., Padovani, A., Masotti, L., Vannucchi, V., Sohn, S.-I., Lorenzini, G., Tassi, R., Guideri, F., Acampa, M., Martini, G., Ntaios, G., Karagkiozi, E., Athanasakis, G., Makaritsis, K., Vadikolias, K., Liantinioti, C., Chondrogianni, M., Mumoli, N., Consoli, D., Galati, F., Sacco, S., Carolei, A., Tiseo, C., Corea, F., Ageno, W., Bellesini, M., Colombo, G., Silvestrelli, G., Ciccone, A., Scoditti, U., Denti, L., Mancuso, M., Maccarrone, M., Orlandi, G., Giannini, N., Gialdini, G., Tassinari, T., De Lodovici, M. L., Bono, G., Rueckert, C., Baldi, A., D'Anna, S., Toni, D., Letteri, F., Giuntini, M., Lotti, E. M., Flomin, Y., Pieroni, A., Kargiotis, O., Karapanayiotides, T., Monaco, S., Baronello, M. M., Csiba, L., Szabó, L., Chiti, A., Giorli, E., Del Sette, M., Imberti, D., Zabzuni, D., Doronin, B., Volodina, V., Michel, P., Vanacker, P., Barlinn, K., Pallesen, L.-P., Kepplinger, J., Bodechtel, U., Gerber, J., Deleu, D., Melikyan, G., Ibrahim, F., Akhtar, N., Gourbali, V., and Yaghi, S.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Neuroscience and Psychology
Journal Name:Stroke
Publisher:American Heart Association
ISSN:0039-2499
ISSN (Online):1524-4628
Published Online:09 February 2017
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
First Published:First published in Stroke 48(3): 726-732
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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