A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks

Enright, J. and Kao, R. (2016) A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks. Epidemics, 16, pp. 56-62. (doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.002) (PMID:27379615)

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Calculation of expected outbreak size of a simple contagion on a known contact network is a common and important epidemiological task, and is typically carried out by computationally intensive simulation. We describe an efficient exact method to calculate the expected outbreak size of a contagion on an outbreak-invariant network that is a directed and acyclic, allowing us to model all dynamically changing networks when contagion can only travel forward in time. We describe our algorithm and its use in pseudocode, as well as showing examples of its use on disease relevant, data-derived networks.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the Scottish Government as part of EPIC: Scotland’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks.
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Kao, Professor Rowland and Enright, Dr Jessica
Authors: Enright, J., and Kao, R.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:Epidemics
ISSN (Online):1878-0067
Published Online:24 May 2016
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 The Authors
First Published:First published in Epidemics 16:56-62
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
703921EPIC Centre of Expertise in Animal Disease OutbreaksDominic MellorScottish Government - Rural and Environment Science (SGOV-RES)Scottish GovernVET - PATHOLOGY, PUBLIC H & DISEASE INV