Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes

Ewing, D. A., Cobbold, C. A. , Nunn, M. A., Purse, B. V. and White, S. M. (2016) Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 400, pp. 65-79. (doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.04.008) (PMID:27084359)

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Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. We present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council Doctoral Training Grant [Grant no. NE/L501645/1]. Steven White and Beth Purse are supported by CEHs National Capability allocation (NEC05100 HARM project).
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Cobbold, Professor Christina
Authors: Ewing, D. A., Cobbold, C. A., Nunn, M. A., Purse, B. V., and White, S. M.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Mathematics
Journal Name:Journal of Theoretical Biology
ISSN (Online):1095-8541
Published Online:13 April 2016
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 The Authors
First Published:First published in Journal of Theoretical Biology 400:65-79
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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