How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging

Pannullo, F., Lee, D. , Waclawski, E. and Leyland, A. H. (2016) How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging. Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology, 18, pp. 53-62. (doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2016.04.001) (PMID:27494960) (PMCID:PMC4985538)

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The long-term impact of air pollution on human health can be estimated from small-area ecological studies in which the health outcome is regressed against air pollution concentrations and other covariates, such as socio-economic deprivation. Socio-economic deprivation is multi-factorial and difficult to measure, and includes aspects of income, education, and housing as well as others. However, these variables are potentially highly correlated, meaning one can either create an overall deprivation index, or use the individual characteristics, which can result in a variety of pollution-health effects. Other aspects of model choice may affect the pollution-health estimate, such as the estimation of pollution, and spatial autocorrelation model. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian model averaging approach to combine the results from multiple statistical models to produce a more robust representation of the overall pollution-health effect. We investigate the relationship between nitrogen dioxide concentrations and cardio-respiratory mortality in West Central Scotland between 2006 and 2012.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Pannullo, Miss Francesca and Lee, Professor Duncan and Leyland, Professor Alastair
Authors: Pannullo, F., Lee, D., Waclawski, E., and Leyland, A. H.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology
ISSN (Online):1877-5853
Published Online:14 April 2016
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 The Authors
First Published:First published in Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology 18: 53-62
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
656601Measuring Health, Variations in Health and Determinants of HealthAlastair LeylandMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/5IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU