Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: a modelling approach

O'Flaherty, M. et al. (2016) Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: a modelling approach. International Journal of Cardiology, 207, pp. 286-291. (doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.01.147) (PMID:26812643) (PMCID:PMC4766942)

114403.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.



Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. Methods: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010–11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25–74 years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3–14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6–25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6–35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%–11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9–8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3–7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7–5.3%. Conclusions: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:authors - on behalf of the Euroheart II Steering Group (including Davies CA, Dundas R, Leyland AH)
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hotchkiss, Dr Joel and Leyland, Professor Alastair and Davies, Dr Carolyn and Dundas, Professor Ruth
Authors: O'Flaherty, M., Bandosz, P., Critchley, J., Capewell, S., Guzman-Castillo, M., Aspelund, T., Bennett, K., Bjorck, L., Kabir, K., Bruthans, J., Hotchkiss, J.W., Hughes, J., Laatikainen, T., Palmieri, L., Zdrojewski, T., Davies, C.A., Dundas, R., and Leyland, A.H.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:International Journal of Cardiology
ISSN (Online):1874-1754
Published Online:11 January 2016
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2016 The Authors
First Published:First published in International Journal of Cardiology 207:286-291
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record

Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
656601Measuring Health, Variations in Health and Determinants of HealthAlastair LeylandMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/5IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU
727671SPHSU Core Renewal: Informing Healthy Public Policy Research ProgrammePeter CraigMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_12017/15IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU