Heuristically enhanced dynamic neural networks for structurally improving photovoltaic power forecasting

Al-Messabi, N., Goh, C. , El-Amin, I. and Li, Y. (2014) Heuristically enhanced dynamic neural networks for structurally improving photovoltaic power forecasting. In: 2014 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), Beijing, China, 6-11 Jul 2014, pp. 2820-2825. ISBN 9781479966271 (doi: 10.1109/IJCNN.2014.6889827)

Abstract

Among renewable generators, photovoltaics (PV) is showing an increasing suitability and a lowering cost. However, integration of renewable energy sources possesses many challenges, as the intermittency of these non-conventional sources often requires generation forecast, planning and optimal management. There exists scope to improve present PV yield forecasting models and methods. For example, the popular dynamic neural network modelling method suffers from the lack of a selection mechanism for an optimal network structure. This paper develops an enhanced network for short-term forecasting of PV power yield, termed a `focused time-delay neural network' (FTDNN). The problem of optimizing the FTDNN structure is reduced to optimizing the number of delay steps and the number of neurons in the hidden layer alone and this problem is conveniently solved through heuristics. Two such algorithms, a genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization (PSO) have been tested and both prove efficient and can improve the forecasting accuracy of the dynamic network. Given the success of the PSO in solving this discontinuous structural optimization problem, it is expected that PSO offers potential in optimizing both the structure and parameters of a forecasting model.

• Item Type: Conference Proceedings
• Additional Information: © 2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Goh, Dr Cindy Sf and Li, Professor Yun
• Authors: Al-Messabi, N., Goh, C., El-Amin, I., and Li, Y.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering; College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Systems Power and Energy
• ISBN: 9781479966271
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2014 IEEE
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher