Baggaley, A.W., Boys, R.J., Golightly, A., Sarson, G.R. and Shukurov, A. (2012) Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period. Annals of Applied Statistics, 6(4), pp. 1352-1376. (doi: 10.1214/12-AOAS579)
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Abstract
We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Baggaley, Dr Andrew |
Authors: | Baggaley, A.W., Boys, R.J., Golightly, A., Sarson, G.R., and Shukurov, A. |
College/School: | College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics |
Journal Name: | Annals of Applied Statistics |
Publisher: | Institute of Mathematical Statistics |
ISSN: | 1932-6157 |
ISSN (Online): | 1941-7330 |
Related URLs: | |
Data DOI: | 10.1594/GFZ.CONTEXT.Ed1 |
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