Estimating alarm thresholds for process monitoring data under different assumptions about the data generating mechanism

Burr, T., Hamada, M. S., Howell, J., Skurikhin, M., Ticknor, L. and Weaver, B. (2013) Estimating alarm thresholds for process monitoring data under different assumptions about the data generating mechanism. Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, 2013(705878), (doi: 10.1155/2013/705878)

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Abstract

Process monitoring (PM) for nuclear safeguards sometimes requires estimation of thresholds corresponding to small false alarm rates. Threshold estimation dates to the 1920s with the Shewhart control chart; however, because possible new roles for PM are being evaluated in nuclear safeguards, it is timely to consider modern model selection options in the context of threshold estimation. One of the possible new PM roles involves PM residuals, where a residual is defined as residual = data − prediction. This paper reviews alarm threshold estimation, introduces model selection options, and considers a range of assumptions regarding the data-generating mechanism for PM residuals. Two PM examples from nuclear safeguards are included to motivate the need for alarm threshold estimation. The first example involves mixtures of probability distributions that arise in solution monitoring, which is a common type of PM. The second example involves periodic partial cleanout of in-process inventory, leading to challenging structure in the time series of PM residuals.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Howell, Dr John
Authors: Burr, T., Hamada, M. S., Howell, J., Skurikhin, M., Ticknor, L., and Weaver, B.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Systems Power and Energy
Journal Name:Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations
Publisher:Hindawi Publishing Corporation
ISSN:1687-6075
ISSN (Online):1687-6083
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2013 The Authors
First Published:First published in Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations 2013(705878)
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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