A metapopulation model for highly pathogenic avian influenza: implications for compartmentalization as a control measure

Nickbakhsh, S., Matthews, L. , Reid, S. and Kao, R.R. (2014) A metapopulation model for highly pathogenic avian influenza: implications for compartmentalization as a control measure. Epidemiology and Infection, 142(09), pp. 1813-1825. (doi:10.1017/S0950268813002963)

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Publisher's URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268813002963

Abstract

Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more ‘risky’ option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Nickbakhsh, Dr Sema and Kao, Professor Rowland and Matthews, Professor Louise
Authors: Nickbakhsh, S., Matthews, L., Reid, S., and Kao, R.R.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection Immunity and Inflammation
Journal Name:Epidemiology and Infection
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN:0950-2688
ISSN (Online):1469-4409
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2014 The Authors
First Published:First published in Epidemiology and Infection 142(9):1813-1825
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
443181Interdisciplinary Centre for Avian Influenza Research (ICHAIR)Stuart ReidScottish Higher Education Funding Council (SHEFC)HR07007VET - VETERINARY MEDICINE ADMINISTRATION