External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception

Khader, A., Lloyd, S.M. , McConnachie, A. , Fleming, R., Grisendi, V., La Marca, A. and Nelson, S.M. (2013) External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception. Journal of Ovarian Research, 6(3), (doi:10.1186/1757-2215-6-3)

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Abstract

<p>Background - Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously assessed the ability of AMH and age to independently predict live birth in an Italian assisted conception cohort. Herein we report the external validation of the nomogram in 822 UK first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles.</p> <p>Methods - Retrospective cohort consisting of 822 patients undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle at Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine. Analyses were restricted to women aged between 25 and 42 years of age. All women had an AMH measured prior to commencing their first IVF cycle. The performance of the model was assessed; discrimination by the area under the receiver operator curve (ROCAUC) and model calibration by the predicted probability versus observed probability.</p> <p>Results - Live births occurred in 29.4% of the cohort. The observed and predicted outcomes showed no evidence of miscalibration (p = 0.188). The ROCAUC was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.68), suggesting moderate and similar discrimination to the original model. The ROCAUC for a continuous model of age and AMH was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61, 0.69), suggesting that the original categories of AMH were appropriate.</p> <p>Conclusions - We confirm by external validation that AMH and age are independent predictors of live birth. Although the confidence intervals for each category are wide, our results support the assessment of AMH in larger cohorts with detailed baseline phenotyping for live birth prediction.</p>

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:McConnachie, Dr Alex and Nelson, Professor Scott and Fleming, Professor Richard and Lloyd, Miss Suzanne
Authors: Khader, A., Lloyd, S.M., McConnachie, A., Fleming, R., Grisendi, V., La Marca, A., and Nelson, S.M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Robertson Centre
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing
Journal Name:Journal of Ovarian Research
Publisher:BioMed Central
ISSN:1757-2215
Published Online:07 January 2013
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2013 The Authors
First Published:First published in Journal of Ovarian Research 6:3
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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