Risk- & Regret-Averse Bidders in Sealed-Bid Auctions

Hayashi, T. and Yoshimoto, H. (2012) Risk- & Regret-Averse Bidders in Sealed-Bid Auctions. Working Paper. University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Overbidding, bidding more than risk-neutral Bayesian Nash Equilibrium, is a widely observed phenomenon in virtually all experimental auctions. The scholars within the auction literature propose the risk-averse preference model to explain overbidding structurally. However, the risk-averse preference model predicts underbidding in such important classes of auctions as all-pay auctions. To solve this discrepancy, we construct a structural model of bidding behavior in sealed-bid auctions, one in which bidders may regret their decisions. Our model nests both risk-averse and regret-averse attitudes and aims to explain overbidding in a wider class of auctions. We first derive equilibrium first-order conditions, which are used for estimation and calibration analyses, and show monotonic increasing properties of equilibrium bidding functions. Second, we carry out structural estimation and calibration analyses based on experimental data from Kagel and Levin (1993) and Noussair and Silver (2006). With these structurally estimated parameters, we test the significance of bidders’ risk-averse and regret-averse attitudes. The estimation results show that bidders exhibit weak risk-averse (close to risk-neutral) and strong regret-averse attitudes. Furthermore, regret-averse attitudes are significant when bidders anticipate losing. Calibration results demonstrate that our risk- & regret-averse model can explain overbidding across all of the above IPV auctions. Third, we simulate our model with the estimated parameters and obtain revenue rankings numerically. This allows us to confirm the revenue supremacy in all-pay auctions reported in experimental auction literature. We discuss extensions to asymmetric and Common-Value (CV) auctions in our online appendix.

Item Type:Research Reports or Papers (Working Paper)
Status:Unpublished
Refereed:No
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Yoshimoto, Dr Hisayuki and Hayashi, Professor Takashi
Authors: Hayashi, T., and Yoshimoto, H.
Subjects:H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
College/School:College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
Publisher:University of Glasgow
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2012 The Authors
Publisher Policy:Reproduced with the permission of the authors

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