Where did the votes go? Reassessing American party realignments via vote transfers between major parties from 1860 to 2008

Hawley, G. and Sagarzazu, I. (2012) Where did the votes go? Reassessing American party realignments via vote transfers between major parties from 1860 to 2008. Electoral Studies, 31(4), pp. 726-739. (doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2012.06.012)

Abstract

Political scientists have long debated theories of electoral party realignments. In this paper, we apply ecological inference methods to statistically analyze the transfer of votes within counties in US presidential elections since 1860. Through this analysis we are able to identify the major periods of party realignment in US history and the counties where these shifts took place. As a result, we are able to provide new insights into American electoral history, and provide strong evidence that the 2008 presidential election did not represent a realigning election as the phrase is generally understood.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Electoral Studies. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Electoral Studies 31(4) (2012), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.06.012
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Sagarzazu, Dr Inaki
• Authors: Hawley, G., and Sagarzazu, I.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Journal Name: Electoral Studies
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 0261-3794
• ISSN (Online): 1873-6890
• Published Online: 17 July 2012
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2012 Elsevier
• First Published: First published in Electoral Studies 31(4):726-739
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher