Impact of Scottish smoke-free legislation on smoking quit attempts and prevalence

Mackay, D.F. , Haw, S. and Pell, J.P. (2011) Impact of Scottish smoke-free legislation on smoking quit attempts and prevalence. PLoS ONE, 6(11), e26188. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0026188) (PMID:22110585) (PMCID:PMC3217920)

Abstract

<p><b>Objectives:</b> In Scotland, legislation was implemented in March 2006 prohibiting smoking in all wholly or partially enclosed public spaces. We investigated the impact on attempts to quit smoking and smoking prevalence.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> We performed time series models using Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) on monthly data on the gross ingredient cost of all nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) prescribed in Scotland in 2003–2009, and quarterly data on self-reported smoking prevalence between January 1999 and September 2010 from the Scottish Household Survey.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> NRT prescription costs were significantly higher than expected over the three months prior to implementation of the legislation. Prescription costs peaked at £1.3 million in March 2006; £292,005.9 (95% CI £260,402.3, £323,609, p<0.001) higher than the monthly norm. Following implementation of the legislation, costs fell exponentially by around 26% per month (95% CI 17%, 35%, p<0.001). Twelve months following implementation, the costs were not significantly different to monthly norms. Smoking prevalence fell by 8.0% overall, from 31.3% in January 1999 to 23.7% in July–September 2010. In the quarter prior to implementation of the legislation, smoking prevalence fell by 1.7% (95% CI 2.4%, 1.0%, p<0.001) more than expected from the underlying trend.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Quit attempts increased in the three months leading up to Scotland's smoke-free legislation, resulting in a fall in smoking prevalence. However, neither has been sustained suggesting the need for additional tobacco control measures and ongoing support.</p>

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Pell, Professor Jill and Mackay, Professor Daniel
• Authors: Mackay, D.F., Haw, S., and Pell, J.P.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Public Health; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity
• Journal Name: PLoS ONE
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• ISSN: 1932-6203
• ISSN (Online): 1932-6203
• Published Online: 16 November 2011
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2011 The Authors
• First Published: First published in PLoS ONE 6(11):e26188
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher