The revised ACPGBI model is a simple and accurate predictor of operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer

Richards, C.H., Leitch, E.F., Anderson, J.H., McKee, R.F., McMillan, D.C. and Horgan, P.G. (2011) The revised ACPGBI model is a simple and accurate predictor of operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer. Annals of Surgical Oncology, 18(13), pp. 3680-3685. (doi:10.1245/s10434-011-1805-1)

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Publisher's URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1245/s10434-011-1805-1

Abstract

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) risk-adjustment model for colorectal cancer surgery has been recently revised. The aim of the present study was to compare the performance of the revised ACPGBI model, the original ACPGBI model, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM, in the prediction of operative mortality after resection of colorectal cancer. A total of 423 patients who underwent potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer at a single institution (1997-2007) were included. Data used in the construction of the ACPGBI model was collected prospectively. The models were compared by examining observed to expected (O:E) ratios, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. The 30-day mortality rate was 4%. The performance of the models was as follows: revised ACPGBI model (O:E ratio = 1.05, AUC = 0.73, H-L = 11.02), original ACPGBI model (O:E ratio = 0.58, AUC = 0.76, H-L = 14.23), P-POSSUM (O:E ratio = 0.87, AUC = 0.79, H-L = 10.63), and CR-POSSUM (O:E ratio = 0.63, AUC = 0.84, H-L = 15.84). In subgroup analysis, the revised ACPGBI model performed well in both elective cases (O:E ratio = 1.06) and emergency cases (O:E ratio = 0.91). The revised ACPGBI model is simple to construct and accurately predicts operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Horgan, Professor Paul and McKee, Dr Ruth and McMillan, Professor Donald and Anderson, Mr John and Richards, Mr Colin
Authors: Richards, C.H., Leitch, E.F., Anderson, J.H., McKee, R.F., McMillan, D.C., and Horgan, P.G.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing
Journal Name:Annals of Surgical Oncology
ISSN:1068-9265
ISSN (Online):1534-4681

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