Senn, S. (2008) A note concerning a selection "paradox" of Dawid's. American Statistician, 62(3), pp. 206-210. (doi: 10.1198/000313008X331530)
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Publisher's URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/000313008X331530
Abstract
This article briefly reviews a selection "paradox" of Dawid's, whereby Bayesian inference appears to be unchanged whether or not treatments have been selected for inspection on the basis of extreme values. The problem is recast in terms of a hierarchical model. This offers an alternative explanation of the paradox but also reveals a disturbing dependence of inference on prior specification. The example may also be used to deepen students understanding of the implications of using conjugate nonhierarchical priors in Bayesian analysis. To illustrate, some simulations are presented.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Bayesian inference; Hierarchical models; Prior distributions; Selection paradox. |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Senn, Professor Stephen |
| Authors: | Senn, S. |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| College/School: | College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics |
| Journal Name: | American Statistician |
| Publisher: | American Statistical Association |
| ISSN: | 1537-2731 |
| Published Online: | 01 January 2012 |
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