Briggs, A. (2001) A Bayesian approach to stochastic cost-effectiveness analysis. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 17(1), pp. 69-82.
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Publisher's URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?aid=76845
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to discuss the use of Bayesian methods in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and the common ground between Bayesian and traditional frequentist approaches. A further aim is to explore the use of the net benefit statistic and its advantages over the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) statistic. In particular, the use of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves is examined as a device for presenting the implications of uncertainty in a CEA to decision makers. Although it is argued that the interpretation of such curves as the probability that an intervention is cost-effective given the data requires a Bayesian approach, this should generate no misgivings for the frequentist. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness acceptability curves estimated using the net benefit statistic are exactly equivalent to those estimated from an appropriate analysis of ICERs on the cost-effectiveness plane. The principles examined in this paper are illustrated by application to the cost-effectiveness of blood pressure control in the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS 40). Due to a lack of good-quality prior information on the cost and effectiveness of blood pressure control in diabetes, a Bayesian analysis assuming an uninformative prior is argued to be most appropriate. This generates exactly the same cost-effectiveness results as a standard frequentist analysis.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Briggs, Professor Andrew |
Authors: | Briggs, A. |
Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine Q Science > QA Mathematics |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences |
Journal Name: | International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care |
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press |
ISSN: | 0266-4623 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2001 Cambridge University Press |
First Published: | First published in International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 17(1):69-82 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher |
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