Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra

Claxton, K., Sculpher, M., McCabe, C., Briggs, A.H. , Akehurst, R., Buxton, M., Brazier, J. and O'Hagan, T. (2005) Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra. Health Economics, 14(4), pp. 339-347. (doi:10.1002/hec.985)

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Publisher's URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hec.985

Abstract

Recently the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) updated its methods guidance for technology assessment. One aspect of the new guidance is to require the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis with all cost-effectiveness models submitted to the Institute. The purpose of this paper is to place the NICE guidance on dealing with uncertainty into a broader context of the requirements for decision making; to explain the general approach that was taken in its development; and to address each of the issues which have been raised in the debate about the role of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in general. The most appropriate starting point for developing guidance is to establish what is required for decision making. On the basis of these requirements, the methods and framework of analysis which can best meet these needs can then be identified. It will be argued that the guidance on dealing with uncertainty and, in particular, the requirement for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, is justified by the requirements of the type of decisions that NICE is asked to make. Given this foundation, the main issues and criticisms raised during and after the consultation process are reviewed. Finally, some of the methodological challenges posed by the need fully to characterise decision uncertainty and to inform the research agenda will be identified and discussed.

Item Type:Articles
Keywords:Health technology assessment, cost-effectiveness analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, National Institute for Clinical Excellence.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Briggs, Professor Andrew
Authors: Claxton, K., Sculpher, M., McCabe, C., Briggs, A.H., Akehurst, R., Buxton, M., Brazier, J., and O'Hagan, T.
Subjects:R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences
Journal Name:Health Economics
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:1057-9230
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2005 Wiley
First Published:First published in Health Economics 14(4):339-347
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.

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