The ABCD and ABCD2 as predictors of stroke in transient ischemic attack clinic outpatients: a retrospective cohort study over 14 years

Harrison, J.K. , Sloan, B., Dawson, J. , Lees, K.R. and Morrison, D.S. (2010) The ABCD and ABCD2 as predictors of stroke in transient ischemic attack clinic outpatients: a retrospective cohort study over 14 years. QJM: An International Journal of Medicine, 103(9), pp. 679-685. (doi:10.1093/qjmed/hcq108) (PMID:20601651)

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Abstract

Aim: To describe the prognostic values of the ABCD and ABCD2 scores on long-term stroke risk. Design: Retrospective cohort study of TIA clinic outpatients followed for up to 14 years. Methods: Absolute and relative stroke risks, Kaplan-Meier survival curves and cumulative stroke incidence were calculated. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROCs) and areas under the curve were calculated for both scores. Results: Seven hundred and ninety-five patients were included and 138 (17.3%) experienced a stroke within 13.8 years follow-up after first TIA clinic visit, a crude risk of 26.3 per 1000 person-years. Compared with baseline scores of 0-2, risk ratios for ABCD of 3-4 were 2.95 (95% CI 1.52-6.40), and for 5-6 were 3.42 (95% CI 1.72-7.54); for the ABCD2, risk ratios for 3-4 were 2.68 (95% CI 1.37-5.84), and for 5-7 were 3.55 (95% CI 1.80-7.79). Scores of epsilon 3 for either ABCD or ABCD2 predicted raised stroke risks at 90 days, 1, 5 and 10 years. Areas under the curve were 0.619 (95% CI 0.571-0.668) and 0.630 (95% CI 0.582-0.677) for the ABCD and ABCD2 scores, respectively. Conclusion: ABCD and ABCD2 scores of epsilon 3 may be clinically useful in identifying TIA outpatients at raised risk of stroke in the medium to long term.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lees, Professor Kennedy and Dawson, Professor Jesse and Burton, Dr Jennifer and Morrison, Dr David and Sloan, Mr William
Authors: Harrison, J.K., Sloan, B., Dawson, J., Lees, K.R., and Morrison, D.S.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Public Health
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing > Centre for Population and Health Sciences
Journal Name:QJM: An International Journal of Medicine
Journal Abbr.:QJM
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:1460-2725
ISSN (Online):1460-2393
Published Online:02 July 2010

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