It never rains but it pours: modeling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices

Christensen, T.M., Hurn, A.S. and Lindsay, K. (2009) It never rains but it pours: modeling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices. Energy Journal, 30(1), pp. 25-48.

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During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. This paper treats these abnormal episodes or price spikes as count events and attempts to build a model of the spiking process. By contrast to the existing literature, which either ignores temporal dependence in the spiking process or attempts to model the dependence solely in terms of deterministic variables (like seasonal and day of the week effects), this paper argues that persistence in the spiking process is an important factor in building an effective model. A Poisson autoregressive framework is proposed in which price spikes occur as a result of the latent arrival and survival of system stresses. This formulation captures the salient features of the process adequately, and yields forecasts of price spikes that are superior to those obtained from naïve models that do not account for persistence in the spiking process.

Item Type:Articles (Other)
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lindsay, Professor Kenneth
Authors: Christensen, T.M., Hurn, A.S., and Lindsay, K.
Subjects:H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Mathematics
Journal Name:Energy Journal
Publisher:International Association for Energy Economics
ISSN (Online):1944-9089

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