Modelling the effects of air pollution on health using Bayesian dynamic generalised linear models

Lee, D. and Shaddick, G. (2008) Modelling the effects of air pollution on health using Bayesian dynamic generalised linear models. Environmetrics, 19(8), pp. 785-804. (doi:10.1002/env.894)

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Publisher's URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.894

Abstract

The relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and mortality or morbidity has been the subject of much recent research, in which the standard method of analysis uses Poisson linear or additive models. In this paper, we use a Bayesian dynamic generalised linear model (DGLM) to estimate this relationship, which allows the standard linear or additive model to be extended in two ways: (i) the long-term trend and temporal correlation present in the health data can be modelled by an autoregressive process rather than a smooth function of calendar time; (ii) the effects of air pollution are allowed to evolve over time. The efficacy of these two extensions are investigated by applying a series of dynamic and non-dynamic models to air pollution and mortality data from Greater London. A Bayesian approach is taken throughout, and a Markov chain monte carlo simulation algorithm is presented for inference. An alternative likelihood based analysis is also presented, in order to allow a direct comparison with the only previous analysis of air pollution and health data using a DGLM.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.com
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lee, Professor Duncan
Authors: Lee, D., and Shaddick, G.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Environmetrics
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN:1180-4009
ISSN (Online):1099-095X
Published Online:08 January 2008
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2008 Wiley-Blackwell
First Published:First published in Environmetrics 19(8):785-804
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher

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