Time-varying coefficient models for the analysis of air pollution and health outcome data

Lee, D. and Shaddick, G. (2007) Time-varying coefficient models for the analysis of air pollution and health outcome data. Biometrics, 63(4), pp. 1253-1261. (doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00776.x)

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In this article a time-varying coefficient model is developed to examine the relationship between adverse health and short-term (acute) exposure to air pollution. This model allows the relative risk to evolve over time, which may be due to an interaction with temperature, or from a change in the composition of pollutants, such as particulate matter, over time. The model produces a smooth estimate of these time-varying effects, which are not constrained to follow a fixed parametric form set by the investigator. Instead, the shape is estimated from the data using penalized natural cubic splines. Poisson regression models, using both quasi-likelihood and Bayesian techniques, are developed, with estimation performed using an iteratively re-weighted least squares procedure and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, respectively. The efficacy of the methods to estimate different types of time-varying effects are assessed via a simulation study, and the models are then applied to data from four cities that were part of the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.com
Keywords:Air pollution, Bayesian hierarchical models, epidemiology, penalized splines, time-varying coefficient models
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lee, Professor Duncan
Authors: Lee, D., and Shaddick, G.
Subjects:G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Biometrics
ISSN (Online):1541-0420
Published Online:09 April 2007
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2007 Wiley-Blackwell
First Published:First published in Biometrics 63(4):1253-1261
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher

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