Long-term cardiovascular consequences of obesity: 20-year follow-up of more than 15 000 middle-aged men and women (the Renfrew–Paisley study)

Murphy, N.F., MacIntyre, K., Stewart, S., Hart, C., Hole, D. and McMurray, J. (2006) Long-term cardiovascular consequences of obesity: 20-year follow-up of more than 15 000 middle-aged men and women (the Renfrew–Paisley study). European Heart Journal, 27(1), pp. 96-106. (doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehi506)

Abstract

Aims To examine the long-term cardiovascular consequences of obesity and project the cardiovascular consequences of the recent increase in prevalence of obesity. Methods and results Between 1972 and 1976, 15 402 individuals aged 45–64, living in two towns in the west of Scotland underwent comprehensive cardiovascular screening. We analysed all deaths and hospitalizations for cardiovascular reasons occurring over the subsequent 20 years according to baseline body mass index (BMI) category. Compared with normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5–24.9), obesity (BMI 30) was associated with an increased adjusted risk of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio for death or hospital admission: 1.60, 95% CI 1.45–1.78), heart failure (2.09, 1.68–2.59), stroke (1.41, 1.21–1.65), venous thrombo-embolism (2.29, 1.60–3.30), and atrial fibrillation (1.75, 1.17–2.65). Obesity was associated with nine additional cardiovascular deaths and 36 additional cardiovascular hospital admissions for every 100 affected middle-aged men over the subsequent 20 years (seven deaths and 28 admissions in women). Assuming no change in cardiovascular risk profile and outcomes related to obesity, the increase in prevalence in 1998, when compared with 1972, is projected to lead to an additional four cardiovascular deaths and 14 admissions per 100 middle-aged men and women over the next 20 years. Conclusion Obesity is associated with an increase in a broad range of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Consideration of only coronary, only fatal, and only first events greatly underestimates the cardiovascular consequences of obesity.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: Subject to publishers embargo until January 2007.
• Keywords: obesity, coronary heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, thromboembolism
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Hart, Dr Carole and McMurray, Professor John and Hole, Prof David and Stewart, Ms Seonaid and MacIntyre, Dr Kate
• Authors: Murphy, N.F., MacIntyre, K., Stewart, S., Hart, C., Hole, D., and McMurray, J.
• Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine; R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Public Health; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing > Centre for Population and Health Sciences; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > General Practice and Primary Care
• Research Group: Midspan
• Journal Name: European Heart Journal
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 0195-668X
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2006 Oxford University Press
• First Published: First published in European Heart Journal 27(1):96-106
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher