Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

Panovska-Griffiths, J. et al. (2022) Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380(2233), 20210315. (doi: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0315)

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Abstract

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65–90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Swallow, Dr Ben
Creator Roles:
Swallow, B.Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – review and editing
Authors: Panovska-Griffiths, J., Swallow, B., Hinch, R., Cohen, J., Rosenfeld, K., Stuart, R. M., Ferretti, L., Di Lauro, F., Wymant, C., Izzo, A., Waites, W., Viner, R., Bonell, C., Fraser, C., Klein, D., and Kerr, C. C.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Publisher:Royal Society
ISSN:1364-503X
ISSN (Online):1471-2962
Published Online:15 August 2022
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2022 The Authors
First Published:First published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 380(2233): 20210315
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License
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