Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence

Mancy, R. et al. (2022) Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence. Science, 376(6592), pp. 512-516. (doi: 10.1126/science.abn0713) (PMID:35482879)

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Abstract

How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Haydon, Professor Daniel and Rajeev, Dr Malavika and Mancy, Dr Rebecca and Hotopp, Ms Karen and Hampson, Professor Katie and Cleaveland, Professor Sarah and Brunker, Dr Kirstyn and Lugelo, Dr Ahmed and Rysava, Ms Kristyna and Ferguson, Dr Elaine
Authors: Mancy, R., Rajeev, M., Lugelo, A., Brunker, K., Cleaveland, S., Ferguson, E. A., Hotopp, K., Kazwala, R., Magoto, M., Rysava, K., Haydon, D. T., and Hampson, K.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
Journal Name:Science
Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science
ISSN:0036-8075
ISSN (Online):1095-9203
Published Online:28 April 2022
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2022 American Association for the Advancement of Science
First Published:First published in Science 376(6592):512-516
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher
Related URLs:
Data DOI:10.5281/zenodo.5885134

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
165644Hierarchical epidemiology: the spread and persistence of infectious diseases in complex landscapesKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)095787/Z/11/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
301620The Science of Rabies EliminationKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)207569/Z/17/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine