Matthews, L. et al. (2006) Heterogeneous shedding of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and its implications for control. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(3), pp. 547-552. (doi: 10.1073/pnas.0503776103)
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Abstract
Identification of the relative importance of within- and between-host variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: ≈80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within- and between-host variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, R 0, could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R 0 by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli O157.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Mellor, Professor Dominic and Matthews, Professor Louise and Reid, Professor Stuart |
Authors: | Matthews, L., Low, J., Gally, D., Pearce, M., Mellor, D., Heesterbeek, J., Chase-Topping, M., Naylor, S., Shaw, D., Reid, S., Gunn, G., and Woolhouse, M. |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
Journal Name: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Publisher: | National Academy of Sciences |
ISSN: | 0027-8424 |
ISSN (Online): | 1091-6490 |
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