How Do Pandemics End? Two Decades of Recurrent Outbreak Risk Following the Main Waves

Schroeder, M. , Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R. and Angelopoulos, K. (2021) How Do Pandemics End? Two Decades of Recurrent Outbreak Risk Following the Main Waves. Working Paper. CESifo, Munich.

Full text not currently available from Enlighten.

Publisher's URL: https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2021/working-paper/how-do-pandemics-end-two-decades-recurrent-outbreak-risk-following

Abstract

The risk of recurrent outbreaks following the main waves of a pandemic has been acknowledged. We provide evidence of the scale and duration of this outbreak risk. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves of two historical pandemics across multiple locations. For the 1890-91 influenza pandemic in England and Wales, as well as the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the US and eight major UK cities, we find elevated mortality risk that persists for nearly two decades. The generality of the findings suggests that, without modern means of intervention, post-pandemic outbreak risk is likely to persist for an extended period, as we demonstrate in an application to COVID-19.

Item Type:Research Reports or Papers (Working Paper)
Additional Information:CESifo Working Paper No. 9475.
Keywords:Pandemics, outbreak risk, influenza, Covid-19, archive data.
Status:Published
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Schroeder, Mr Max and Mancy, Dr Rebecca and Angelopoulos, Professor Konstantinos and Lazarakis, Mr Spyridon
Authors: Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., and Angelopoulos, K.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School
College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
Publisher:CESifo
Published Online:16 December 2021
Related URLs:

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record

Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
311208Assessing policy to address the medium-run impact of COVID-19 on income and health inequality with models informed by the history of disease outbreakKonstantinos AngelopoulosUK Research and Innovation ( UKRI) (UKRI)ES/V005898/1BS - Economics
3048230041Places and healthRich MitchellMedical Research Council (MRC)MC_UU_00022/4HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
727621Neighbourhoods and CommunitiesAnne EllawayOffice of the Chief Scientific Adviser (CSO)SPHSU10HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
3048230091Places and healthRich MitchellOffice of the Chief Scientific Adviser (CSO)SPHSU19HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit