Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

Swallow, B. et al. (2022) Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, 38, 100547. (doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547) (PMID:35180542)

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Abstract

The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:DDA, JB and PB are funded by MRC (Unit Programme number MC/ UU/00002/11); DDA is also supported by the NIHR Health Protection Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation. JPG’s work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Swallow, Dr Ben and Marion, Professor Glenn
Authors: Swallow, B., Birrell, P., Blake, J., Burgman, M., Challenor, P., Coffeng, L. E., Dawid, P., De Angelis, D., Goldstein, M., Hemming, V., Marion, G., McKinley, T. J., Overton, C., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Pellis, L., Probert, W., Shea, K., Villela, D., and Vernon, I.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
Journal Name:Epidemics
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1755-4365
ISSN (Online):1878-0067
Published Online:10 February 2022
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2022 The Authors
First Published:First published in Epidemics 38: 100547
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence

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