Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

Swallow, B. et al. (2022) Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling. Epidemics, 38, 100547. (doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547) (PMID:35180542) (PMCID:PMC7612598)

Abstract

The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: DDA, JB and PB are funded by MRC (Unit Programme number MC/ UU/00002/11); DDA is also supported by the NIHR Health Protection Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation. JPG’s work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Marion, Professor Glenn and Swallow, Dr Ben
• Authors: Swallow, B., Birrell, P., Blake, J., Burgman, M., Challenor, P., Coffeng, L. E., Dawid, P., De Angelis, D., Goldstein, M., Hemming, V., Marion, G., McKinley, T. J., Overton, C., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Pellis, L., Probert, W., Shea, K., Villela, D., and Vernon, I.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine; College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
• Journal Name: Epidemics
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 1755-4365
• ISSN (Online): 1878-0067
• Published Online: 10 February 2022
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Epidemics 38: 100547
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence