Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030: perspectives from quantitative and mathematical modelling

Hampson, K. et al. (2020) Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030: perspectives from quantitative and mathematical modelling. Gates Open Research, 3, 1564. (doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13074.2) (PMID:32596645) (PMCID:PMC7308633)

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Abstract

Dog-mediated rabies continues to kill tens of thousands of people every year in low- and middle-income countries despite being an entirely vaccine-preventable disease. WHO and partners have launched a global campaign to reach zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. The primary tools for reaching this target are mass dog vaccination to interrupt transmission in domestic dog populations that maintain infection, appropriate post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for rabies-exposed persons to prevent the fatal onset of disease, together with education to support their effective uptake. Models have been developed to assess the feasibility, impact and cost-effectiveness of these measures. From these models, we argue that the 2030 target of zero human rabies deaths is achievable, but will require concerted effort, engagement and investment. A proposed Gavi investment in human rabies vaccines has potential to drive progress towards the 2030 target; however, concomitant investment is needed to scale up mass dog vaccination or this target will be missed. Predicted economic benefits of mass dog vaccination vary according to national PEP provisioning and healthcare access. Integrated Bite Case Management can enhance surveillance and rationalize PEP use, but needs adapting to and integrating within local health systems and international reporting systems to improve PEP accountability, monitor impacts and support verification of disease freedom. Modelling approaches need refining to project realistic and geographically specific timelines for achieving targets. Model iterations informed by data on the implementation of interventions can be used to evaluate progress and guide future strategies. Critically such models are needed to advocate for investment, since the greatest risk to the ‘Zero by 30’ strategy is the limited long-term cross-sectoral or targeted financing to support countries to deliver and sustain mass dog vaccination.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hampson, Professor Katie and changalucha, Mr joel and Cleaveland, Professor Sarah and Rysava, Ms Kristyna and Miranda, Dr Mary Elizabeth and Lushasi, Mr Kennedy
Authors: Hampson, K., Abela-Ridder, B., Changalucha, J., Cleaveland, S., Knopf, L., Lushasi, K., Miranda, M. E., Thumbi, S.M., Rysava, K., Tenzin, T., Tildesley, M., Wallace, R., and Trotter, C.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
Journal Name:Gates Open Research
Publisher:F1000Research
ISSN:2572-4754
ISSN (Online):2572-4754
Published Online:11 October 2019
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 WHO Rabies Modelling Consortium
First Published:First published in Gates Open Research 3: 1564
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
301620The Science of Rabies EliminationKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)207569/Z/17/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine