Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

Vöhringer, H. S. et al. (2021) Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England. Nature, 600(7889), pp. 506-511. (doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-04069-y) (PMID:34649268) (PMCID:PMC8674138)

Abstract

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC), part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. Additional sequence generation was funded by the Department of Health and Social Care. H.S.V., J.P.G. and M.G. are supported by a grant from the Department of Health and Social Care. A.W.J., E.B. and M.G. are beneficiaries from grant NNF17OC0027594 from the Novo Nordisk Foundation. E.V. is supported by Wellcome Trust grant 220885/Z/20/Z. T.S. is supported by grant 210918/Z/18/Z, and J.H. and S.F. by grant 210758/Z/18/Z from the Wellcome Trust. H.S.V., N.D.M., A.W.J., N.G., E.B. and M.G. are supported by EMBL. Open access funding provided by Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ).
• Keywords: Epidemiology, evolutionary genetics, SARS-CoV-2, viral infection.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Wright, Mr Derek and Robertson, Professor David and Nichols, Mrs Jenna and Vattipally, Dr Sreenu and Nomikou, Dr Kyriaki and Tomb, Dr Rachael and Thomson, Professor Emma and Tong, Dr Lily and Mair, Mr Daniel and Harvey, Dr William and Orton, Dr Richard and Blacow, Dr Rachel and Da Silva Filipe, Dr Ana and Gunson, Dr Rory and Shepherd, Dr James and Tsatsani, Ms Ioulia and Smollett, Dr Katherine and MacLean, Dr Alasdair and Hughes, Dr Joseph and Broos, Ms Alice
• Authors: Vöhringer, H. S., Sanderson, T., Sinnott, M., De Maio, N., Nguyen, T., Goater, R., Schwach, F., Harrison, I., Hellewell, J., Ariani, C. V., Gonçalves, S., Jackson, D. K., Johnston, I., Jung, A. W., Saint, C., Sillitoe, J., Suciu, M., Goldman, N., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Birney, E., Volz, E., Funk, S., Kwiatkowski, D., Chand, M., Martincorena, I., Barrett, J. C., Gerstung, M., Abnizova, I., Aigrain, L., Alderton, A., Ali, M., Allen, L., Amato, R., Anderson, R., Ariani, C., Austin-Guest, S., Bala, S., Barrett, J., Bassett, A., Battleday, K., Beal, J., Beale, M., Beaver, C., Bellany, S., Bellerby, T., Bellis, K., Berger, D., Berriman, M., Betteridge, E., Bevan, P., Binley, S., Bishop, J., Blackburn, K., Bonfield, J., Boughton, N., Bowker, S., Brendler-Spaeth, T., Bronner, I., Brooklyn, T., Buddenborg, S. K., Bush, R., Caetano, C., Cagan, A., Carter, N., Cartwright, J., Monteiro, T. C., Chapman, L., Chillingworth, T.-J., Clapham, P., Clark, R., Clarke, A., Clarke, C., Cole, D., Cook, E., Coppola, M., Cornell, L., Cornwell, C., Corton, C., Crackett, A., Cranage, A., Craven, H., Craw, S., Crawford, M., Cutts, T., Dabrowska, M., Davies, M., Davies, R., Dawson, J., Day, C., Densem, A., Dibling, T., Dockree, C., Dodd, D., Dogga, S., Dorman, M., Dougan, G., Dougherty, M., Dove, A., Drummond, L., Drury, E., Dudek, M., Durham, J., Durrant, L., Easthope, E., Eckert, S., Ellis, P., Farr, B., Fenton, M., Ferrero, M., Flack, N., Fordham, H., Forsythe, G., Foulser, L., Francis, M., Fraser, A., Freeman, A., Galvin, A., Garcia-Casado, M., Gedny, A., Girgis, S., Glover, J., Goncalves, S., Goodwin, S., Gould, O., Gourtovaia, M., Gray, A., Gray, E., Griffiths, C., Gu, Y., Guerin, F., Hamilton, W., Hanks, H., Harrison, E., Harrott, A., Harry, E., Harvison, J., Heath, P., Hernandez-Koutoucheva, A., Hobbs, R., Holland, D., Holmes, S., Hornett, G., Hough, N., Huckle, L., Hughes-Hallet, L., Hunter, A., Inglis, S., Iqbal, S., Jackson, A., Jackson, D., James, K., Jamrozy, D., Verdejo, C. J., Jones, M., Kallepally, K., Kane, L., Kay, K., Kay, S., Keatley, J., Keith, A., King, A., Kitchin, L., Kleanthous, M., Klimekova, M., Korlevic, P., Krasheninnkova, K., Lane, G., Langford, C., Laverack, A., Law, K., Lawniczak, M., Lensing, S., Leonard, S., Letchford, L., Lewis, K., Lewis-Wade, A., Liddle, J., Lin, Q., Lindsay, S., Linsdell, S., Livett, R., Lo, S., Long, R., Lovell, J., Lovell, J., Ludden, C., Mack, J., Maddison, M., Makunin, A., Mamun, I., Mansfield, J., Marriott, N., Martin, M., Mayho, M., McCarthy, S., McClintock, J., McGuigan, S., McHugh, S., McMinn, L., Meadows, C., Mobley, E., Moll, R., Morra, M., Morrow, L., Murie, K., Nash, S., Nathwani, C., Naydenova, P., Neaverson, A., Nelson, R., Nerou, E., Nicholson, J., Nimz, T., Noell, G. G., O’Meara, S., Ohan, V., Oliver, K., Olney, C., Ormond, D., Oszlanczi, A., Palmer, S., Pang, Y. F., Pardubska, B., Park, N., Parmar, A., Patel, G., Patel, M., Payne, M., Peacock, S., Petersen, A., Plowman, D., Preston, T., Prestwood, L., Puethe, C., Quail, M., Rajan, D., Rajatileka, S., Rance, R., Rawlings, S., Redshaw, N., Reynolds, J., Reynolds, M., Rice, S., Richardson, M., Roberts, C., Robinson, K., Robinson, M., Robinson, D., Rogers, H., Rojo, E. M., Roopra, D., Rose, M., Rudd, L., Sadri, R., Salmon, N., Saul, D., Schwach, F., Scott, C., Seekings, P., Shirley, L., Simms, A., Sinnott, M., Sivadasan, S., Siwek, B., Sizer, D., Skeldon, K., Skelton, J., Slater-Tunstill, J., Sloper, L., Smerdon, N., Smith, C., Smith, C., Smith, J., Smith, K., Smith, M., Smith, S., Smith, T., Sneade, L., Soria, C. D., Sousa, C., Souster, E., Sparkes, A., Spencer-Chapman, M., Squares, J., Stanley, R., Steed, C., Stickland, T., Still, I., Stratton, M. 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• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Life Sciences; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity > Centre for Virus Research; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Journal Name: Nature
• Publisher: Nature Research
• ISSN: 0028-0836
• ISSN (Online): 1476-4687
• Published Online: 14 October 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Nature 600(7889): 506-611
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License