Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens.

Metcalf, C. J. E., Andriamandimby, S. F., Baker, R. E., Glennon, E. E., Hampson, K. , Hollingsworth, T. D., Klepac, P. and Wesolowski, A. (2021) Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens. Epidemics, 37, 100507. (doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100507) (PMID:34823222) (PMCID:PMC7612525)

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Abstract

When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available on the pathogen trajectory, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context that will influence policy decisions and the pathogen’s outcome.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:CJEM would like to thank the Princeton Centre for Health and Wellbeing. KH was funded by Wellcome [207569/Z/17/Z]. EEG is funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship [220463/Z/20/Z]. TDH acknowledges funding from the UKRI JUNIPER consortium. A.W. is supported by the US National Institutes of Health through the National Library of Medicine (DP2LM013102) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (1R01A1160780-01) and a Career Award at the Scientific Interface from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund. This work was supported by EPSRC grant no EP/R014604/1.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hampson, Professor Katie
Authors: Metcalf, C. J. E., Andriamandimby, S. F., Baker, R. E., Glennon, E. E., Hampson, K., Hollingsworth, T. D., Klepac, P., and Wesolowski, A.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:Epidemics
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1755-4365
ISSN (Online):1878-0067
Published Online:17 November 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
First Published:First published in Epidemics 37: 100507
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
301620The Science of Rabies EliminationKatie HampsonWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)207569/Z/17/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine