What is the predictive value of established risk factors for total and cardiovascular disease mortality when measured before middle age? Pooled analyses of two prospective cohort studies from Scotland

Gray, L. , Hart, C.L. , Davey Smith, G. and Batty, G.D. (2010) What is the predictive value of established risk factors for total and cardiovascular disease mortality when measured before middle age? Pooled analyses of two prospective cohort studies from Scotland. European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation, 17(1), pp. 106-112. (doi:10.1097/HJR.0b013e3283348ed9)

Full text not currently available from Enlighten.

Abstract

Aims: To examine the association of physiological, behavioural and social characteristics in pre-middle age with future total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Methods and results: Risk factor data on 1503 individuals aged 16–35 years at baseline were collected in two prospective cohort studies using standard protocols. Their association with total and CVD mortality ascertained during 40 years of follow-up was summarized using Cox proportional hazards regression. A median follow-up of 39.6 years gave rise to 255 deaths (103 from CVD). In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, impaired lung function [one standard deviation increases in forced expiratory volume in 1s: hazards ratio 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.55, 0.86; and in forced vital capacity: 0.76; 0.59, 0.98], current cigarette smoking (4.16; 2.22, 7.80) and higher alcohol consumption (one standard deviation increase in standard units consumed: 1.20; 1.02, 1.41) were associated with CVD. In fully adjusted analyses associations generally held. For total mortality, these factors and obesity and socioeconomic disadvantage were predictive. Conclusion: A range of risk factors measured before middle age were related to risk of total and CVD mortality up to four decades later, indicating that public health interventions should be implemented earlier in the life course than is currently the case.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Hart, Dr Carole and Davey Smith, Professor George and Gray, Dr Linsay and Batty, Dr G
Authors: Gray, L., Hart, C.L., Davey Smith, G., and Batty, G.D.
Subjects:R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > Public Health
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > Institute of Health and Wellbeing > General Practice and Primary Care
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing > Centre for Population and Health Sciences
Journal Name:European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation
ISSN:1741-8267
ISSN (Online):1741-8275

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record