The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

Richardson, E., Taulbut, M., Robinson, M., Pulford, A. and McCartney, G. (2021) The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 75(4), pp. 365-370. (doi: 10.1136/jech-2020-214770) (PMID:33082131) (PMCID:PMC7958084)

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Abstract

Background: Life expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland. Methods: We applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms. Results: We estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males. Interpretation: This study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Pulford, Andrew and McCartney, Professor Gerard
Authors: Richardson, E., Taulbut, M., Robinson, M., Pulford, A., and McCartney, G.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences
College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Sociology Anthropology and Applied Social Sciences
Journal Name:Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
Publisher:BMJ Publishing Group
ISSN:0143-005X
ISSN (Online):1470-2738
Published Online:20 October 2020
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 The Authors
First Published:First published in Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 75(4): 365-370
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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