Ramírez-Hassan, A. and Montoya-Blandón, S. (2020) Forecasting from others’ experience: Bayesian estimation of the generalized Bass model. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(2), pp. 442-465. (doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.016)
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Abstract
We propose a Bayesian estimation procedure for the generalized Bass model that is used in product diffusion models. Our method forecasts product sales early based on previous similar markets; that is, we obtain pre-launch forecasts by analogy. We compare our forecasting proposal to traditional estimation approaches, and alternative new product diffusion specifications. We perform several simulation exercises, and use our method to forecast the sales of room air conditioners, BlackBerry handheld devices, and compressed natural gas. The results show that our Bayesian proposal provides better predictive performances than competing alternatives when little or no historical data are available, which is when sales projections are the most useful.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | The research was partly supported by Universidad EAFIT (Convocatoria Proyectos Internos 2018) grant 828-000044. |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Montoya-Blandon, Dr Santiago |
| Authors: | Ramírez-Hassan, A., and Montoya-Blandón, S. |
| College/School: | College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics |
| Journal Name: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0169-2070 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1872-8200 |
| Published Online: | 19 October 2019 |
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