Large-scale flood risk assessment under different development strategies: the Luanhe River Basin in China

Zhao, J., Chen, H., Liang, Q., Xia, X., Xu, J. , Hoey, T. , Barrett, B. , Renaud, F. G. , Bosher, L. and Zhou, X. (2021) Large-scale flood risk assessment under different development strategies: the Luanhe River Basin in China. Sustainability Science, (doi: 10.1007/s11625-021-01034-6) (Early Online Publication)

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Abstract

Increasing resilience to natural hazards and climate change is critical for achieving many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In recent decades, China has experienced rapid economic development and became the second-largest economy in the world. This rapid economic expansion has led to large-scale changes in terrestrial (e.g., land use and land cover changes), aquatic (e.g., construction of reservoirs and artificial wetlands) and marine (e.g., land reclamation) environments across the country. Together with climate change, these changes may significantly influence flood risk and, in turn, compromise SDG achievements. The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) is one of the most afforested basins in North China and has undergone significant urbanisation and land use change since the 1950s. However, basin-wide flood risk assessment under different development scenarios has not been considered, although this is critically important to inform policy-making to manage the synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs and support long-term sustainable development. Using mainly open data, this paper introduces a new framework for systematically assessing flood risk under different social and economic development scenarios. A series of model simulations are performed to investigate the flood risk under different land use change scenarios projected to 2030 to reflect different development strategies. The results are systematically analysed and compared with the baseline simulation based on the current land use and climate conditions. Further investigations are also provided to consider the impact of climate change and the construction of dams and reservoirs. The results potentially provide important guidance to inform future development strategies to maximise the synergies and minimise the trade-offs between various SDGs in LRB.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:This research is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) of the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through the Towards a Sustainable Earth (TaSE) programme (NE/S012427/1)
Status:Early Online Publication
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Renaud, Professor Fabrice and Barrett, Dr Brian and Hoey, Professor Trevor and Xu, Dr Jiren
Authors: Zhao, J., Chen, H., Liang, Q., Xia, X., Xu, J., Hoey, T., Barrett, B., Renaud, F. G., Bosher, L., and Zhou, X.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
College of Social Sciences > School of Interdisciplinary Studies
Journal Name:Sustainability Science
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1862-4065
ISSN (Online):1862-4057
Published Online:11 October 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © The Author(s) 2021
First Published:First published in Sustainability Science 2021
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
304813River basins as 'living laboratories' for achieving sustainable development goals across national and sub-national scalesFabrice RenaudNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)NE/S012427/1IS - Interdisciplinary Studies